Major Mistakes in Political Polls
Despite Serious Errors, Presidential Election Polls Survived
Political election polls in presidential elections survived and thrived despite some high profile blunders by leading polling organizations such as Gallup's Poll in 1948.
Despite major historical mistakes when political polls inaccurately predicted the outcome of presidential elections, the polling industry endured and ultimately developed into a thriving industry in the United States.
Alf Landon defeats Franklin Roosevelt?
The Literary Digest, the top pollster in the U.S. at the turn of the century, accurately predicted the outcomes of the presidential elections of 1916, 1920, 1924, 1928, and 1932. Unfortunately, the magazine is not remembered for such precise predictions. It is primarily remembered for its embarrassing declaration that Republican Alf Landon would defeat Democrat Franklin Roosevelt in the 1936 election. History proved them wrong because F.D.R. won in a landslide.
The Digest appeared ridiculous and the error proved quite humiliating. Such a major mistake cast doubt upon the real worth of their previous predictions. Soon after, the magazine ceased publication and was absorbed into Time Magazine in 1938. This event seems to have contributed to the end of the Literary Digest as a business enterprise, but it also marked the demise of the use of straw polls as a reliable tool for measuring public opinion in presidential elections.
On the other hand, George Gallup used a significantly smaller, but more representative sampling in order to predict Roosevelt's re-election and the demand for more accurate polls using scientific methods was recognized. The industry had reached a turning point and from this moment in history, the modern day polling industry established its reason for existence.
Thomas Dewey Defeats Harry Truman?
Nevertheless, serious errors would still be made. In the presidential election of 1948, George Gallup also tasted humiliation as his organization made an inaccurate prediction. In that election, despite his scientific procedures, George Gallup incorrectly predicted the victory of New York Governor Thomas Dewey over President Harry Truman. In 1948, President Harry Truman campaigned for re-election against the Republican hopeful, Dewey, who had also been the candidate for the Republicans in 1944.
Truman ran for re-election as president in his own right after ascending to the position when Roosevelt died in office. Unfortunately, not many so called “experts” gave Truman much of a chance to win. Almost unanimously, the top political pollsters of the day, touted results that led most to believe that Dewey would easily win.
The newspapers of the day took their cues from the polling experts such as Gallup and others and many determined the outcome prematurely. In fact, one of the most famous photographs in U.S. history, depicts Truman holding up an issue of the Chicago Daily Tribune after the election with the headline reading “Dewey Defeats Truman.” It was Truman's sweet victory; but for pollsters, it represented a significant setback.
In this election, Gallup had used the polling technique of "quota sampling" which showed up as ineffective. Such a process involved selecting a specific number of people within categories such as males, females, blacks, whites, as well as people from different income levels and then registering their opinion.
This technique, used by Gallup, Elmo Roper and others among the new breed of pollsters, suffered in credibility after such an embarrassing prediction. From this time, the use of "quota sampling" was no longer relied upon as a valid method for polling public opinion. More modern efforts of determining public opinion utilize a "random sampling" of the populace. Thus, the procedures for polling and predicting with greater precision became more refined with each major public failure.
Sources:
The American Presidents, David C. Whitney and Robin V. Whitney, 1993, Doubleday Book and Music Clubs, Inc.
Mass Media: Opposing Viewpoints Byron L. Stay, book editor, 1999, Greenhaven Press
