Political Polls in the Early 1900s
Early History of Political Polls in Presidential Elections
Presidential election polling in the 1900s based upon unscientific polling procedures. How the procedures changed dramatically after the election of 1936.
During presidential election years such as 2008, the American public is bombarded daily with the latest opinion poll results revealing the current frontrunner. One opinion poll after another portrays who leads and who lags in the marathon to decide our nation's Chief Executive. Such political polling seems to be more pervasive than ever before. However, opinion polls have been part of presidential politics from colonial times. Americans have grown up with such polls.
Roots of Modern Polling
At the turn of the century, the roots of our modern day polling industry developed a national prominence. Prior to this time, such polling during presidential election years, was limited to towns and cities and did not hold much significance nationwide. This changed when the Literary Digest, a popular magazine of the time, extended their straw vote polling in presidential elections to the forty eight states.
The weekly magazine, started in 1890 by Funk and Wagnalls, began an ambitious project during the presidential election of 1916. In an effort partially aimed at increasing circulation, the magazine created a national survey to determine public opinion towards the candidates. The election pitted Charles Evans Hughes against the governor of New Jersey, Woodrow Wilson.
The Literary Digest mailed millions of questionnaires to their subscribers and potential subscribers (each postcard included a subscription form). More than 2,500 returned responses enabled them to correctly predict the re-election of Wilson. From this foundation, and through each subsequent presidential election including that of 1932, the results of their polls were accurate more than 70% of the time.
A Critical Error
Based on such success, the Digest established a solid repuutation and became the leading pollster in the U.S. for 20 years. Unfortunately, this all changed because the magazine made a critical error during the 1936 election as Franklin Delano Roosevelt ran for re-election to a second term. 10 million surveys were sent out that year and 2 million completed surveys were returned.
Based upon their results, the Literary Digest predicted that the Republican candidate, Alf Landon, would defeat Roosevelt by winning 57 percent of the popular vote and a total of 370 electoral votes. Unfortunately, history never validated their prediction and Roosevelt won in a landslide.
A Success Story
Contrary to the major mistake of the Literary Digest, one of the most significant achievements in political polling emerged from this election. A thirty five year old, former journalism professor at Northwestern University, correctly predicted the outcome of the election through a new and more scientific approach to the polling process. George Gallup used a smaller, but more representative sample of Americans for his survey to predict Roosevelt's victory.
Gallup also demonstrated how the Digest's methods of predicting were biased towards the majority of their subscribers or those who could afford to own a telephone or an automobile. It did not represent most Americans who had just survived a depression. The mistake may have been fatal because the Digest' was absorbed by Time magazine in 1938. On the other hand, based on his success, Gallup went from running a minor polling service to becoming a major player in predicting future presidents.
Sources:
Mass Media: Opposing Viewpoints Byron L. Stay, book editor, 1999, Greenhaven Press
American Government and Politics Today: The Essentials Bardes, Shelley, Schmidt, 2008, Thomson Wadsworth
The American Presidents, David C. Whitney and Robin V. Whitney, 1993, Doubleday Book and Music Clubs, Inc.
