Irrelevance of Early Political Polling in 2008
Limited Value Of Early Political Polls in Presidential Elections
Dec 1, 2008
If we look back at early polls in February of 2007, Hillary Clinton looked likely to be the frontrunner for the Democrats and Rudy Giuliani looked as if h would be one of the mainstays for the Republicans during the campaign. However, the lengthy 2008 presidential campaign proved to be a marathon that developed its share of surprises, and ultimately, the American voters chose Barack Obamaover John McCain.
Early Poll Results Off Target
An broader historical examination of the early predictions of nominating polls shows that Republicans with early poll leads usually hold their lead and go on to become their party's nominee. However, with the Democrats, it is not as easy to predict. Data from the Pew Research Center reveals that from 1959 to the present, early frontrunners for the Democrats only won their party's nomination approximately 50% of the time even though they led early in the polls.
This trend held up in 2008. While Rudy Giuliani held a lead in early national polls in 2007, John McCain was fairly even with him, and it was not clear whether Giuliani would be able to keep pace with McCain through 2008. Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, the trend of unpredictability for the Democrats also held up. Her toe to toe race with Obama lasted almost all the way up to the Democratic National Convention in the summer.
Such lightweight results bring into question the relevance of early opinion polls and whether they serve a genuine purpose. The Pew article revealed that even with party nominees, "...review of polls conducted in the first quarter of the year preceding the election found many of them forecasting the wrong winner -- often by substantial margins. In February 1995, several early readings showed Sen. Bob Dole leading President Bill Clinton by as many as 6 percentage points. Twenty-one months later, Clinton won by 8 percentage points."
Barack vs. Hillary
Barack Obama started out winning in Iowa and South Carolina and winning a huge chunk of delagates in Super Tuesday in early February, but Ms. Clinton did not quit and put up a valiant, never -say-die campaign She did not concede to Obama until June, a little more than a month before the Democratic Party's Convention in Denver. There was even speculation that she could have disrupted the convention with an effort to challenge Obama's overall victory in the primaries.
Despite the lengthy battle, the Democrats were able to unite and get their candidate elected in November. However, very few could foresee such a battle looming between Barak and Hillary back in early 2007. Also, some speculation existed about whether she may have been a good running mate for Obama n 2008, but a year earlier she appeared to be the one who would have been the presidential candidate.
2008 Economic and Political Climate Changes
As can be observed from the 2008 campaign, the economic and political climate shifted significantly several times from the beginning of the year. Early polls cannot pretend to predict accurate outcomes several months preceding a presidential election with the many economic or political changes that can erupt during a campaign. So, do early polls provide any public purpose?
The most they seem to achieve is to present public opinion. However, so early in a campaign, how do people have enough information about the various candidates to make a meaningful choice? The polls appear to operate on a premise that there is some value in making such premature predictions. An honest question would be whether such polls serve any usefl purpose or are they mainly of value to the pollsters?
