George Gallup's Gaffe
Gallup's One Major Miscalculation in Scientific Polling
During George Gallup's career, he did not miss the mark too often as he predicted future U.S. presidents. But, in the 1948 election, he blew it and was nearly ruined.
The article, George Gallup's Big Bet, touches on Gallup’s intellectual understanding and intestinal fortitude as a foundation to risk so much in making his outrageous bet with newspaper publishers. However, had he taken more time to lay his foundation and then made the same bet on the outcome of the 1948 presidential election, he may have failed miserably.
Gallup’s entrance onto the national stage occurred when he correctly predicted F.D.R.’s victory in the presidential election of 1936, and for a time, Gallup rode the wave of success. However, in 1948, he erroneously blew a prediction as his polls showed New York Governor Thomas Dewey defeating President Harry Truman. A significant momento of this mistake is the famous photograph of Harry Truman beaming and holding up a copy of the Chicago Daily Tribune showing the front page headline: Dewey Defeats Truman. While a sweet victory for Truman, it was a bitter pill for Gallup to swallow.
1948 Presidential Campaign
Truman had been F.D.R.’s Vice President for only 82 days, when he was forced to take the reins as Chief Executive after Roosevelt died in office in 1945. In his bid for re-election, he was running on his own merit. On the other side, Dewey had been the Republican choice in 1944, and he had not lost the popular vote to Roosevelt by much. And, Truman was no Roosevelt. He was not as charismatic, nor did he possess the political vision of Roosevelt.
Also, during Truman’s first term, a conservative movement in Congress formed and the Republicans. must have felt that Truman would not prove much of a challenge. They realized that public opinion of Truman was not that strong. Many viewed him as an uneducated farmer and not truly prepared to be President. In short, Truman was not viewed as easily electable.
Not many so called “political experts” gave Truman much of a chance. However, Truman’s famous “"whistle-stop" train campaign” and his energetic effort to connect to the people was a powerful factor in his favor. He became viewed as a straight talker and willing to discuss the issues with the people. Nevertheless, top political pollsters of the day, including Gallup’s organization, touted consistent results throughout the campaign showing that Dewey would win.
Major Miscalculations
The three top pollsters: Gallup, Archibald Crossley, and Elmo Roper, all believed that votes would not change much prior to election day and they stopped polling and interviewing several weeks before election day. Because of this premature halt to operations, they missed the collapse of support for minor parties which had been in the campaign. People shifted to support the major parties, and especially, the incumbent. Truman won substantially.
This was a severe blow to the polling industry and to Gallup. Just as straw polls lost credibility in 1936, the "quota sampling" technique, which had been used by all three top pollsters at this time, was called into question in the wake of this fiasco.
"Quota sampling" involved selecting numbers of people within specific categories such as a certain percentage of working males, a percentage of farmers, etc. and obtaining their opinions on issues. After this embarrassing prediction, the use of "quota sampling" was no longer trusted to provide accurate results. Despite scientific procedures, Gallup predicted incorrectly and tasted humiliation. It is reported that he lost between 30 - 40 accounts for his American Institute of Public Opinion.
Source:
Moore, David W. The Superpollsters: How They Measure and Manipulate Public Opinion in America . New York: Four Walls Eight Windows, 1995
