George Gallup's Big Break
Gallup Beats Oddmakers and Accurately Predicts the 1936 Election
Gallup faced serious odds as he took on the leading pollster of the day, the Literary Digest, but correctly predicted F.D.R. winning the 1936 presidential election.
George Gallup - A Pollster is Born, relates the foundation laid by Gallup which set the stage for a dramatic event in his life which led to national recognition and eventual international success. After earning his Ph.D., Gallup set off on what seemed to be a career in teaching journalism and continuing his reader-interest research. However, within eight years, Gallup would conduct a poll that would change his life and influence the success of the polling industry.
From Academia to the Corporate World
In 1932, Gallup went to work for the New York advertising firm of Young and Rubicam as the director of their research division. He had become quite aware of public attitudes, not just regarding what features people preferred to read, but what advertisements were read and why. He also began to utilize market research techniques to measure public opinion on political and social issues.
During this same period, Gallup became involved in conducting surveys for his mother-in-law who was running for the office of Secretary of State in Iowa. Ola Babcock Miller had been put on the ballot in honor of her deceased husband who had campaigned for governor in 1926. She won and became the first woman elected to that office.
In the polls he ran for her race, Gallup's figures were within one percent of actual results. Success in that election forecast sparked his interest and he became intrigued with possibilities in forecasting. In the 1934 congressional election, he unofficially experimented with a nationwide poll. Again, his figures were within one percentage point of the outcome.
From the Corporate World to the Political Realm
This provided him with additional inspiration and he ultimately teamed up with another Midwesterner, Harold Anderson, who also recognized the potential to make money from such opinion polls. He partnered with Gallup to create the American Institute of Public Opinion in 1935.
From their one-room office in Princeton, New Jersey, Anderson sold the concept of a syndicated column on public opinion to several newspaper publishers. Among the more prestigious papers were The Washington Post and the New York Herald Tribune. The very first Gallup poll question determined that 60% of Depression-era Americans believed the government spent too much on recovery.
A Bold Move
However, the most dramatic event that occurred in their new venture was when Gallup made a bet as a lure for newspapers to buy into his opinion column. He promised newspaper publishers that he could predict the winner of the 1936 presidential election. Actually, he guaranteed newspapers who subscribed to the poll, that if he predicted incorrectly, he would refund their money from the entire year. For the fledgling AIPO, it was a serious gamble as an incorrect prediction would bring financial disaster.
Gallup also guaranteed that he would predict more accurately than the Literary Digest, the leading pollster of the day who had been predicting presidential elections correctly since 1916. This bold move by the Gallup enterprise could be likened to David and Goliath.
The Digest predicted Alf Landon would win with 57% of the vote and Gallup predicted F.D.R. with 54%. History recorded that Roosevelt won in a landslide with 61% of the popular vote. It was a sweet victory for George as from this day he became nationally known. As they say, the rest is history.
Sources:
Moore, David W. The Superpollsters: How They Measure and Manipulate Public Opinion in America. New York: Four Walls Eight Windows, 1995.
“The Black & White Beans.” Time 03 May 1948.
