Once upon a time, swine flu was mild, and usually transmitted by pig-to-human contact. In 1918, a swine flu pandemic killed 20 million people world-wide, including 500,000 in the US. And then, for several decades, the swine flu went under the radar.
1976 Swine Flu Outbreak
That all changed in February 1976, when several recruits out in Fort Dix, NJ contracted a severe case of swine flu; one of the, 19 years old, died after going on an overnight hike with the flu. The prevailing theory at the time was that particularly virulent strains of flu emerged somewhere in the world every 11 years; by this reckoning, the next one was due in 1979 – but ’76 was close enough.
At the time, the top federal people responsible for flu vaccination had been collaborating for five years on how to get Americans vaccinated ahead of infection (due, of course, to the fed’s failure to do so during the previous flu pandemics). For six weeks, no cases of swine flu outside of Fort Dix were found. However, the strain did appear to transmit itself easily from human to human within the camp.
Government Decision Making
The flu season was officially over. But what would happen in the fall? If a pandemic broke out, everyone would be at risk: since the swine flu had not been around for decades, those younger than 50 would have no natural inoculation against it. Scientists could only guess at what was to come. Another 1918 was very unlikely, but not impossible.
For the first time, the government had the knowledge of a possible upcoming pandemic and several months to prepare for the next flu season. Faced with uncertainty, the government scientists decided action was the best choice – and they figured they had only a couple of weeks to secure funding and turn the plan into action.
Given the massive costs of manufacturing a vaccine ($134 million at the time) and the uncertainty that it would be needed, making the wrong call would be politically risky. Yet the fact that a scientific recommendation existed forced the Executive’s hand. If the information leaked – and the thought was that it would – the nation would roast President Ford for being unwilling or unable to act to prevent the possibility of mass morbidity and mortality.
1976 Swine Flu Vaccine Debacle
In late March, 1976, the government took the unprecedented step of creating a public-private partnership to create and distribute vaccines for “every man, woman, and child” in the US. Manufacturing problems and delays due to concerns over liability issues made the number of swine flu vaccine produced fall far short of the 250 million ordered.
This turned out to be lucky (if embarrassing): not only did the swine flu fail to materialize, but the vaccines caused serious side effects. Two and a half months after vaccines became publicly available, and after an astounding 40 million people had been inoculated (twice as many as in any previous year), the program was terminated. By that time, thousands of people had contracted the devastating neurological disorder Guillan Barre syndrome and an estimated 500 Americans had died, allegedly due to the vaccine.
Conclusion
In 1976, on the basis of limited information, the government was faced with a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario. They did, and because of unexpected severe side effects from the swine flu vaccine, they were doubly punished.
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